Unpopular opinion the bottom is not in

The bottom isn’t in. This place and other crypto communities is still too positive. The bottom is only in, only truly in when even the most bullish bulls are saying that it’s over. There has not been sufficient pain yet imo.

Couple things I think could be major catalysts to push price down by EOY;

1. Fed Rate Hikes. market is saying that a fed rate hike is almost guaranteed this year, and there’s a 40 percent chance of one happening in July. Kevin Warsh is a Hawk. Bitcoin has completely underperformed the smp500 for ages, all it takes is another tiny correction on the smp but for bitcoin it’ll be another big percentage down.

2. Clarity act failing. Polymarket says that it has a 48 percent chance of passing. Just a few months ago it was 70%+. Few months ago I saw a lot of bulls saying that if it happens that it’ll make bitcoin spike massively we might even break the four year cycle and go to 100k plus this year. This was the consensus. The hype was there. But you can’t just act like it goes one way. If the clarity act fails due to primarily the ethics revolving trump and his family it seems, the crypto market will react negatively. This does not seem to be fully priced in if this does happen.

3. MSTR selling more bitcoin. It looks like STRC is in really bad shape right now. Strategy needs more cash. The market crashed just a few weeks ago from saylor selling what 20, 30 bitcoin? What do you think will happen if he actually sells like a big amount. I’m not saying that this is the end of strategy and they’re going to be selling millions of coins or anything. But if the market reacted like that for just a couple of coins, let’s say saylor instead sells a couple hundred, or even a thousand coins. The market corrected so much on just a little, I’m worried what it’ll do if he sells a decent chunk.

Too many people are positive in the space right now. The bottom only truly happens when the sentiment goes overwhelmingly negative. When the thought of buying any more is ridiculous. Curious what yall think?